The Inevitable War

Why Peace Never Stood A Chance

For several weeks I have been predicting that a renewed war against Iran is both inevitable and imminent. In my most recent interview with Nasim Ahmed for Palestine This Week, our weekly podcast for Middle East Monitor, recorded on 24 February, I concluded that war “is likely to happen before we speak again” on 2 March.

I have been wrong before and one thing that is certain is that I will be wrong again. I was very much hoping this would be one of those cases. Unfortunately, on this occasion I was right.

There were several reasons I felt confident in my prediction.

While US President Donald Trump is indeed the decision maker in his administration, he has no understanding of either foreign policy or the Middle East, nor any interest in acquiring it. What bandwidth he retains appears fully devoted to himself, and particularly his need to appear powerful on the world stage and glorified by his peers.

An empty head is typically filled by those in its vicinity with the best access and most influence. While the coalition the Trump campaign assembled to elect him for a second term contains a sizeable anti-interventionist constituency, neither this constituency nor its sentiments are well represented within either the administration, among the plutocrats who own the US political class, or the lobbyists who do their bidding.

Iran hawks, neoconservatives, and Israel firsters (including members of the Christian Zionist cult) are by contrast very well represented and very powerful, both within the administration and in its immediate orbit. And they don’t lack for access.

Together, the war coalition successfully persuaded Trump that a war against Iran would not only be successful but also decisive, fairly quick, relatively painless, and enhance Trump’s domestic and international stature. The leadership of the Democratic Party was effectively on board, raising concerns only about the process. In a word, the Epstein class prevailed.

Secondly, the enormous military resources the US assembled in the Middle East far exceeded what might have been required to exert diplomatic pressure on Iran. That it requires significant reinforcements to prosecute a prolonged war may well be true, but that would not prevent the initiation of a war that has been sold as short and sharp. The mobilization was also unsustainable, in the sense that it could not have been sustained indefinitely while negotiations continued.

Third, Israel did everything within its power to unleash this war, recognizing the unique opportunity, represented by Trump and his administration, to mobilize the might of the US military to crush an adversary it could not defeat alone.

I remain convinced that the GCC states, including the UAE, counselled against this war. They hoped to avoid the scenes we have witnessed today. They will not have been particularly impressed by rosy predictions of rapid and decisive victory, and genuinely fear the short as well as longer term ramifications of this war upon their national security. They lacked the means to prevail, and probably bowed to the inevitable without trying too hard to avoid complications in their relations with Washington.

Israeli officials have been briefing the media that the recent negotiations between the US and Iran were a charade from the very outset, conducted solely to lull Tehran into a false sense of security. I’m not sure I buy it. US negotiators, as well as Trump, appeared genuinely convinced they could bully the Iranians into capitulating. It is however true that Israel helped ensure that the US made preposterous demands no sovereign nation could accept.

Axios quoted a “senior Israeli official” as stating: “The goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime. We are targeting the entire Iranian leadership – political and military – past, present, and future.” That’s state collapse, not regime change. I suspect that is not a goal shared at present by Washington, but also one it will increasingly pursue on Israel’s behalf as the war expands.